Harvest Forecasts (Main and Mid-Crop) in Côte d'Ivoire

It is important to stress that these figures are forecasts and are therefore subject to adjustment depending on changes in weather conditions, disease prevalence and other factors. The most recent information (as of 1 June 2025) is crucial, especially after the difficult 2023/2024 season.

Context of the 2024/2025 Cocoa Season in Côte d'Ivoire

The 2023/2024 cocoa season was marked by a significant drop in production in Côte d'Ivoire (and Ghana), mainly due to unfavourable weather conditions (heavy rains at first followed by drought) and swollen shoot disease. This drop in supply was one of the main drivers of the historic surge in cocoa prices on world markets.

All eyes are therefore turned with particular attention to the 2024/2025 season to see whether a production recovery is in sight.

Forecasts for the 2024/2025 Cocoa Season in Côte d'Ivoire:

As of early June 2025, here is what can be drawn from analyses and first indications:

1. 2024/2025 Main Crop (October 2024 - March 2025):
   • General Trends: The 2024/2025 main crop is now over. Port arrivals were followed very closely. Although hopes of a recovery were expressed after the very weak 2023/2024 crop, conditions were not uniformly optimal everywhere.
   • Expected Figures: Consolidated estimates for the main crop are still being finalised by the Coffee-Cocoa Council (CCC) and the ICCO. However, trends observed during the season suggested production slightly higher than the 2023/2024 main crop, but still below the averages of the good years (before 2023/2024).
     • Market sources and analyses expected a main crop that could be around 1.3 to 1.5 million tonnes. This figure remains below the main crops that regularly exceeded 1.6-1.8 million tonnes in the past.
   • Influencing Factors:
     • Positive: The high prices paid to producers at the end of the 2023/2024 season and the start of 2024/2025 may have encouraged better upkeep of plantations and a more thorough harvest. The CCC has also resumed the distribution of seedlings and inputs.
     • Negative: The long-term effects of disease (swollen shoot) and the ageing of part of the orchard continue to weigh. Weather conditions (harmattan, rainfall) during the pod development phase were mixed.
2. 2025 Mid-Crop (April/May 2025 - August/September 2025):
   • General Trends: The 2025 mid-crop is currently under way. Forecasts for this harvest are traditionally more volatile and dependent on weather conditions during the months of March to May.
   • Expected Figures:
     • First estimates for the 2025 mid-crop are cautious. After a main crop that did not show a spectacular rebound, expectations for the mid-crop are also modest.
     • Initial forecasts are generally in a range of 350,000 to 450,000 tonnes. Some analyses are even more pessimistic, fearing that drought or poorly distributed rains in early 2025 may have affected flowering and the development of young pods.
     • The Coffee-Cocoa Council generally remains discreet about its detailed forecasts for the mid-crop until arrival trends are clearer.
   • Influencing Factors:
     • Climate: The amount and regularity of rainfall between April and June 2025 are crucial. Good sunshine is also needed.
     • State of the Trees: The health of the trees after the main crop and the impact of disease.
     • Producer Motivation: The guaranteed prices for the mid-crop, although generally lower than those of the main crop in the Ivorian system (before partial price liberalisation allowing exporters to pay more), but in the current context of high world prices, farmgate prices should remain attractive.

Total Forecast for the 2024/2025 Season:

• Combining an estimated main crop (for example, between 1.3 and 1.5 million tonnes) and a mid-crop (for example, between 0.35 and 0.45 million tonnes), total production for the 2024/2025 season could be around 1.65 to 1.95 million tonnes.
• This would represent a slight recovery from the disastrous 2023/2024 season (which was expected well below 1.8 million tonnes, or even lower), but would remain significantly below the productions of more than 2.2 million tonnes recorded in previous seasons.

Sources and Reliability:

It is advisable to follow the official publications of Côte d'Ivoire's Coffee-Cocoa Council (CCC) and the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) for the most authoritative figures. News agencies such as Reuters and Bloomberg also provide regular estimates based on surveys of exporters, field reports and market analyses. The USDA also publishes periodic reports.